![]() ![]() ![]() Running Head: Modeling FEV 1 and FEV 1/FVC Jointly for COPDįunding Support: The COPD Genetic Epidemiology (COPDGene ®) study is funded by National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grants U01 HL089897 and U01 HL089856. ![]() The model developed can be used to predict progression for any potential COPD individual, based on demographic, symptom, computed tomography, and comorbidity variables. Participants with predicted loss of FEV 1 and/or FEV 1/FVC of at least 5% tended to have more emphysema, higher functional residual capacity, higher airway wall thickness as measured by Pi10, lower FVC to total lung capacity ratio and a lower body mass index at baseline, all relative to overall cohort averages. Here, linear mixed models were used to model changes in FEV 1 and FEV 1/FVC jointly for 5- and 10-year intervals, using important baseline predictors to better understand the factors that affect disease progression. Modeling changes in these outcomes jointly is beneficial given that they are correlated, and they are both required for specific disease classifications. Classic diagnostic criteria for COPD and disease severity such as the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease document are based on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1) and FEV 1 to forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio. Understanding baseline characteristics that can predict the progression of lung disease such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for current or former smokers may allow for therapeutic intervention, particularly for individuals at high risk of rapid disease progression or transition from non-COPD to COPD. ![]()
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